Andrew Coburn

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Dana M Peterson

The COVID-19 pandemic has been the largest economic shock since the great financial crisis. Although the pandemic's affect is global, preliminary data indicates an uneven breakdown in job losses between genders — women are bearing the brunt of the layoffs at a much higher rate than men. This is largely due to the segmentation of female laborers into sectors which have been adversely affected by the coronavirus disruptions. Generally, women occupy 75 percent or more of the jobs in the personal care, health care, and clerical professions and roughly 70 percent in the education sector. In the U.S., layoffs of women in the services sector were 1.4 times that of men. Overall, in a subset of economies (not including China) we've looked at, a total of 44 million employees will likely face layoffs due to the pandemic. Of those, ~31 million are likely to be women compared to ~13 million men. If our forecasts are accurate and roughly 31 million women lose their jobs, the equivalent loss to real GDP could be about $1 trillion , or 1.2 of the 3.6 percent year-over-year drop in GDP growth we expect in 2020. In addition to losing more jobs, women are also more likely to be the caretakers of the sick, children and elderly, which increase the risk of them not being able to rejoin the workforce. Together, there is a risk that any gains made in female labor force participation over the past five years will be lost. Given this level of economic loss from women leaving the workforce, decision makers must take women into account in any policies being implemented to address the COVID-19 economic disruptions. These policies should be some of the same vital policies that supported female labor force participation and employment prior to the coronavirus shock. They include policy options that support women, workers, and families with caring responsibilities, options that support women, workers, and families facing job and economic loss, and policy options to support entrepreneurs and small business owners. Authors: Dana M Peterson,

The COVID-19 pandemic has been the largest economic shock since the great financial crisis. Although the pandemic's affect is global, preliminary data indicates an uneven breakdown in job losses&nbsp; between genders &mdash; women are bearing the brunt of the layoffs at a much higher rate than men. This is largely due to the segmentation of female laborers into sectors which have been adversely affected by the coronavirus disruptions. Generally, women occupy 75 percent or more of the jobs in the personal care, health care, and clerical professions and roughly 70 percent in the education sector. In the U.S., layoffs of women in the services sector were 1.4 times that of men. Overall,&nbsp; in a subset of economies (not including China) we've looked at, a total of 44 million employees will likely face layoffs due to the pandemic. Of those, ~31 million are likely to be women compared to ~13 million men. If our forecasts are accurate and roughly 31 million women lose their jobs, the equivalent loss to real GDP could be about $1 trillion , or 1.2 of the 3.6 percent year-over-year drop in&nbsp; GDP growth we expect in 2020. In addition to losing more jobs, women are also more likely to be the caretakers of the sick, children and elderly, which increase the risk of them not being able to rejoin the workforce. Together, there is a risk that any gains made in female labor force participation over the past five years will be lost. Given this level of economic loss from women leaving the workforce, decision makers must take women into account in any policies being implemented to address the COVID-19 economic disruptions. These policies should be some of the same vital policies that supported female labor force participation and employment prior to the coronavirus shock. They include policy options that support women, workers, and families with caring responsibilities, options that support women, workers, and families facing job and economic loss, and policy options to support entrepreneurs and small business owners. Authors: Dana M Peterson,

COVID-19 to Erode Female Labor Force Participation Gains

May 27, 2020 - In the Citi GPS 'Women in the Economy' series, we introduced the concept of 'women as global growth generators'. Following the great financial crisis, with global economic growth rates fairly anemic, we suggested increasing the number of women in the workforce could be a lever to increase growth levels. Back in 2015, our work showed that increasing female labor force participation to the same level as males could add 12% to the GDP of OECD countries by 2030.  Even reducing the gap by 50% could lead to GDP gains in countries like Germany, France, and Italy of 5.6%, 4.7%, and 11%, respectively. In 2017 we adjusted those numbers with a conservative assessment on the potential impact of gender policies and changes. Even with these conservative assumptions, we showed that increasing the female labor force participation rate could drive a 6% increase in GDP growth in advanced economies.

Female Job & Growth Setback

To answer those questions, we reached out to Dr. Andrew Coburn, Chief Scientist at the Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies. The Centre for Risk Studies provides frameworks for recognizing, assessing, and managing the impact of systemic threats. The research program is concerned with catastrophes and how their impacts ripple across an increasingly connected world with consequent effects on the international economy, financial markets, firms in the financial sector, and global corporations. Dr. Coburn notes how the COVID-19 pandemic is the largest ever event loss for the global insurance industry and discusses what that will mean for the industry going forward. Despite the use of pandemic risk models, the main issue for insurers is that claims from the pandemic and government shutdowns have come from almost every category of insurance at the same time. These type of large ‘clash’ events have changed the industry in the past and as economies return to work there will be a desire to find protection from similar events in the future. It is likely governments will provide a backstop or indemnify insurers against a future ‘clash’ on this scale. The most significant change may be in the structure and relationship between businesses and the protection products they are seeking from the insurance industry. It may mean the insurance industry creates a closer risk partnership with their policyholders, acting as risk advisors rather than simply writing a check after the event.Authors: Andrew Coburn,

To answer those questions, we reached out to Dr. Andrew Coburn, Chief Scientist at the Cambridge Centre for Risk Studies. The Centre for Risk Studies provides frameworks for recognizing, assessing, and managing the impact of systemic threats. The research program is concerned with catastrophes and how their impacts ripple across an increasingly connected world with consequent effects on the international economy, financial markets, firms in the financial sector, and global corporations. Dr. Coburn notes how the COVID-19 pandemic is the largest ever event loss for the global insurance industry and discusses what that will mean for the industry going forward. Despite the use of pandemic risk models, the main issue for insurers is that claims from the pandemic and government shutdowns have come from almost every category of insurance at the same time. These type of large &lsquo;clash&rsquo; events have changed the industry in the past and as economies return to work there will be a desire to find protection from similar events in the future. It is likely governments will provide a backstop or indemnify insurers against a future &lsquo;clash&rsquo; on this scale. The most significant change may be in the structure and relationship between businesses and the protection products they are seeking from the insurance industry. It may mean the insurance industry creates a closer risk partnership with their policyholders, acting as risk advisors rather than simply writing a check after the event.Authors: Andrew Coburn,

Non-Financial Issuer Fundamentals Update, Q1 2020

Thinking about what the future will look like post-pandemic begs the question could some of the economic pain have been avoided? Could we have predicted the amount of economic loss or which sectors would be most affected by COVID-19 prior to it becoming a pandemic?

US High Grade Strategy Focus

Eric G Lee

Edward L Morse

Anthony Yuen

Francesco Martoccia

Looking at the numbers, the decline in global carbon emissions has put the world on a positive trajectory toward limiting the rise in global temperature to only 2 degrees Celsius. But as countries come out of lockdown and push to restart economic activity, demand for fossil fuel and their corresponding emissions are once again rising. With the pandemic accelerating some trends, such as remote business meetings and working from home, energy demand could dampen over the longer term, but the magnitude of these changes are yet to be known. In addition, the pandemic has taken a financial toll on both governments and corporations such that after the economy gets back up and running, there may be little money left to tackle climate change. Global leaders seem committed to maintaining a climate focus through the economic recovery post-pandemic through the mobilization of massive fiscal stimulus to address both the pandemic recovery and climate change at the same time. Major stimulus policies that could boost the economy, create jobs, reduce pollution/emissions, and cut GHG emissions could be win-win-win measures. Policy responses in the three largest emitting countries/regions — the U.S., China and the European Union — are crucial to the future path of emissions. In the U.S., states who normally are leaders on climate change issues such as California and New York are struggling with revenue shortfalls. Robust federal action could be the answer, but this will take time and political will. China's energy security goals are compatible with lowering emissions and they continue to pursue local pollution reduction. The new EU Industrial Strategy aims to transform the EU into the first “net zero” economy by 2050. Overall, bold government action and continued commitments from businesses and individuals are critical in maintaining climate action momentum. Authors: Eric G Lee,Edward L Morse,Anthony Yuen,Francesco Martoccia,

Looking at the numbers, the decline in global carbon emissions has put the world on a positive trajectory toward limiting the rise in global temperature to only 2 degrees Celsius. But as countries come out of lockdown and push to restart economic activity, demand for fossil fuel and their corresponding emissions are once again rising. With the pandemic accelerating some trends, such as remote business meetings and working from home, energy demand could dampen over the longer term, but the magnitude of these changes are yet to be known. In addition, the pandemic has taken a financial toll on both governments and corporations such that after the economy gets back up and running, there may be little money left to tackle climate change. Global leaders seem committed to maintaining a climate focus through the economic recovery post-pandemic through the mobilization of massive fiscal stimulus to address both the pandemic recovery and climate change at the same time. Major stimulus policies that could boost the economy, create jobs, reduce pollution/emissions, and cut GHG emissions could be win-win-win measures. Policy responses in the three largest emitting countries/regions &mdash; the U.S., China and the European Union &mdash; are crucial to the future path of emissions. In the U.S., states who normally are leaders on climate change issues such as California and New York are struggling with revenue shortfalls. Robust federal action could be the answer, but this will take time and political will. China's energy security goals are compatible with lowering emissions and they continue to pursue local pollution reduction. The new EU Industrial Strategy aims to transform the EU into the first &ldquo;net zero&rdquo; economy by 2050.&nbsp; Overall, bold government action and continued commitments from businesses and individuals are critical in maintaining climate action momentum.&nbsp;Authors: Eric G Lee,Edward L Morse,Anthony Yuen,Francesco Martoccia,

May 29, 2020 - The lockdowns imposed by COVID-19 have devastated economies, businesses, and employment as well taken a toll on the physical and mental health of the general population. But if you were searching at all for a silver lining, you need only to look out your window. In many cities and regions the economic shutdown has produced a 'silver lining' of reduced air pollution.  In April, air pollutant levels were at their lowest point in almost 70 years. Iconic structures like the Hollywood sign, the Manhattan skyline, and the Eiffel Tower could be clearly seen. Cities in countries such as China and India, which have struggled with heavy air pollution, have seen blue skies come out from behind the haze.

From Flattening the Epidemiological Curve to Flattening the Carbon Emissions Curve?

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US High Grade Strategy Focus

Female Job & Growth Setback

From Flattening the Epidemiological Curve to Flattening the Carbon Emissions Curve?

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