Our target price of HK$500 is based on a two-stage DDM model. We first calculate the discounted value of 2025E–27E DPS and then add the terminal value assuming 7% perpetual growth and COE of 9.3%. Our TP represents 2025E PE of 38x and is based on 2025E ADT of HK$238bn.

Key downside risks to our target price include: 1) an easing in trading volumes due to deterioation in market sentiment; 2) a rise in geopolitical risks; and 3) a halt in the IPO market.