We use a two-stage dividend discount model (DDM) to value Alinma, including the present value of 2026-28E dividends and a terminal value assuming 4.0% growth at a 10.5% cost of equity. We set a target price of SAR 31.0 based on this methodology. We cross-check this valuation using: (1) justified price-to-book valuation vs peers; and (2) comparable valuation relative to Alinma's historical trading range and growth prospects.

We see the following key risks to achieving our target price:
(1) Further oil price shock or an improvement in oil prices – A severe and prolonged oil price correction may hamper business activities in KSA – impacting the bank's share price. At the same time, a recovery in oil prices could bode well for our forecasts and valuation.
(2) US rate cycle not as expected – Faster-than-expected US rate declines could impact our estimates negatively. At the same time, any reversal in the US rate direction (ie upwards movement) would positively affect our forecasts and valuation.
(3) Regulatory and political risks – Any major change in regulations may impact the bank's business. Further, given KSA’s geographical presence close to some of the relatively troubled regions in the MEA region, any major deterioration in the geopolitical climate may impact the performance of banks in KSA.