Our target price of HK$111.6 is derived from a target 22x 2025E P/E reflecting slowing industry growth, which is at a 25% discount to the historical trading P/E of Nike to reflect Anta's lower earnings visibility.

Key downside risks include: (1) worse-than-expected competition; (2) weaker-than-expected Fila business; and (3) weaker-than-expected CF (due to top-line slowdown). Key upside risks include: (1) faster-than-expected recovery of Fila business; (2) stronger-than-expected growth of Amer Sports (46%-owned associate); and (3) faster-than-expected industry growth. Any of these risk factors could cause the shares to deviate from our target price.