We set our target price at ¥335,000, applying a multiple of 27.8x to the aggregate of our DPU forecasts for FP7/24 and FP1/25 (dividend yield of 3.60%, yield spread of 260bps). Our target price equates to a NAV premium of -4% on our FP1/25 forecasts and an implied cap rate of 3.90%.
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Risks associated with the attainment of our target price include developments in the real estate investment market (i.e., premiums/discounts on the liquidity of asset holdings), the real estate leasing market, and the interest rate and credit markets. Our current assessment is that 1) the real estate investment market is flat and that liquidity premiums are likewise flat, 2) leased housing rents are sustaining a modest uptrend, and 3) ADR’s debt-raising platform is stable and that the Japan monetary environment is easy. If the impact of any of these factors varies greatly from our expectations, the share price may diverge from our target price.
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