Our $39 target price for Comcast is based on the average of the following methodologies: 
   
Our DCF analysis uses an average WACC of 8.5% and a consolidated terminal growth rate of 0.5% to arrive at an operating enterprise value estimate of roughly $232 billion at year-end 2025. This is then adjusted for net debt and other adjustments for investments and NOLs to arrive at an equity value of around $152 billion or $39 per fully diluted share. 
   
We apply a 6.0x EV/EBITDA multiple on our 2025 EBITDA estimate of $37.7 billion. We expect an EBITDA CAGR of 0.7% between 2025-2028, yielding a fair value of around $37 per share     
  
We use a P/FCF multiple of 9.0x our 2025 FCF estimate of $4.47 to arrive at a value of $40 per share.     

Downside risks to achieving our target price include: 1) soft economy or recession may lower revenue and profit contributions from advertising and parks; 2) may pursue dilutive M&A in media and/or wireless which may not be well-received by the market; 3) experience faster video revenue erosion; 4) spend higher capex than expected to continue to upgrade broadband capabilities; 5) cord cutting may have an adverse impact on NBCU revenues and profit contributions as well as potentially dampen cable segment financials; 6) experience greater broadband competition that adds downward pressure to customer growth and dilutes ARPU expectations; and 7) possible changes to the regulatory environment could be a risk to pricing and returns within the broadband business. Impacts related to the potential for economic weakness and recession remain a risk to our financial forecasts and valuation multiples for the company as well as the sector.