We value Americold Realty Trust by triangulating between NAV and AFFO multiple valuations. For COLD, our valuation methodologies take into consideration the company's niche industry, strong balance sheet and attractive cost of capital, a fragmented industry allowing for future growth opportunities via acquisitions, and continued value creation from its development pipeline. This methodology results in a target price of $20. We calculate this using an average of AFFO multiple (~13x 2025E AFFO) and NAV valuations.

COLD’s earnings and business could be negatively impacted by development and leasing delays, slower transaction markets, stock price volatility, and capital markets availability especially as COVID issues remain.  Continued customer production issues could weigh on inventories and occupancy and shares could underperform relative to our target price or conversely if production ramps occupancy expectations could outperform expectations and shares could outperform relative to our target price.  In addition, if private market cap rates compress more than we anticipate, the stock could outperform our target price. If private market cap rates expand more than we anticipate, the stock could underperform our target price.  Labor markets are a unique risk for COLD and its customers.  The lack of directly comparable public companies makes it harder for investors to underwrite their investment decision.