Our $134 target price is based on a 17x target multiple on our 2026e adj. EBITDA estimate, above the upper end of its long-term forward EV/EBITDA range of 11.5x to 15x to account for potential upside from a cyclical inflection in freight rates. Our target price reflects a balanced view on CHRW’s ability to achieve margin expansion through cost-out initiatives and its ability to compete with other brokers by leveraging its scale and network.

Key downside risks include a prolonged environment where rates do not inflect meaningfully alongside a longer-than-anticipated timeline to reach cost-out targets, pressuring margins, as well as intensified competition from RXO and emerging tech-enabled startup brokers.