Our Bt28 target price is based on: 1) 80% weighting for our fair value, derived from 1.3x 2025E BV of Bt20.8, set at its mean level (owing to a slow-down of presales YoY); and 2) 20% weighting for our calculated NAV (Bt29/share). We believe AMATA’s value should be in-line with its NAV as the global economy improves after outbreak and chances of the EEC succeeding are rising. Our NAV is largely based on market prices for land.   

We give an 80% weight to BV as we believe that the share price should partially reflect some replacement value – which is based on the appraisal value of land held – while BV represents cost or the original investment price. Our target price is equivalent to 11x 2025E P/E (vs. a cycle average of 14.3x and -/+ 1 SD range of 11x-18x) and 1.3x 2025E P/B, lower than its replacement value of estimated Bt29/share (which equates to approximately 2x book value, mainly due to the low carrying value of assets vs. current land prices).

The key downside risks to our investment thesis on Amata, which could impede the stock from reaching our target price, include: (1) 2025E-26E presales being less than estimated due to weaker-than-expected direct investment; (2) weakening global trade and recession; (3) longer delays in construction progress and transfer for the Amata Vietnam (Long Thanh and Ha-Long) contribution; (4) concentration of land towards the Chonburi area in two sites in Thailand (5) cancellation of land presale (6) lower realized margin.