Our Bt22.50 target price is based on: 1) 80% weighting for our fair value, derived from 1x 25E BV of Bt20.7, set at -1SD vs. mean  (owing to a slowdown in presales YoY); and 2) 20% weighting for our calculated NAV (Bt29/share). Our NAV is largely based on market prices for land. We give an 80% weight to BV as we believe that the share price should partially reflect some replacement value – which is based on the appraisal value of land held – while BV represents cost or the original investment price. Our target price is equivalent to 9.6x 2025E P/E (vs. a cycle average of 14x and -/+ 1 SD range of 10x-18x) and 1x 2025E P/B, lower than its replacement value of estimated Bt29/share (which equates to approximately 2x book value, mainly due to the low carrying value of assets vs. current land prices).

Key downside risks to our investment thesis on Amata that could impede the stock from reaching our target price include: (1) 2025E-26E presales being less than estimated due to weaker-than-expected direct investment; (2) weakening global trade and recession; (3) longer delays in construction progress and transfer for the Amata Vietnam (Long Thanh and Ha-Long) contribution; (4) concentration of land towards the Chonburi area in two sites in Thailand; (5) cancellation of land presales; (6) lower realized margins; (7) tariffs in Trump’s first announcement at 36% for TH and  46% for VN.