Currency Risk – With 50% of AMCR’s earnings coming from outside of the US, a strengthening of the USD relative to other currencies could negatively impact the company’s earnings.
EM Demand – We estimate Amcor derives ~20% of sales from emerging markets; if demand were to slow in key EM markets such as Brazil, Russia, and China, earnings could be adversely affected.
Innovation vs. Commoditization in Flexible Packaging – Plastics-based packaging is highly competitive and many products are subject to commoditization over time. New entrants could cause AMCR to lose market share and/or pricing power. Conversely new innovative products could cause AMCR to gain market share and improve margins.
Execution Risk – If AMCR is not successful in implementing its growth and productivity programs, or if capital programs disrupt existing operations, it could cause AMCR earnings to decline. Conversely, better-than-expected execution could cause earnings to improve.
Single-Use Plastics Sustainability Concerns – Criticism of plastic packaging’s impact on the environment has been increasing globally from consumers over the last 12 months. If this criticism is followed by widespread consumer changes in buying preferences, Amcor could be adversely impacted.
Synergy Risk – Amcor currently targets $530mm in cost synergies over the next three years. While we believe the target is achievable, if Amcor is unable to capture the synergies within the given timeframe or if total synergies are below the target, AMCR shares may be negatively impacted.
If the impact on the company from any of these factors proves to be greater than we anticipate, the stock will likely have difficulty achieving our target price. Likewise, if any of these factors proves to have less of an effect than we anticipate, the stock could outperform our target.
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