Our 12-month target price of Eur22.50 assumes Amplifon trades at c.10x EV/EBITDA using blended 2026-27E EBITDA; this effectively assumes Amplifon trades in-line with the 25th percentile of the stock’s 2015-2019 range, which we believe sufficiently reflects slower-than-expected developments in the company's end-market.

Key downside risks include greater-than-expected headwinds to volume and product mix as a result of the recessionary environment (especially as Amplifon is heavily exposed to Europe), intensifying competition, and an inability to execute on M&A integration.

Key upside risks include significant corporate activity, faster-than-expected hearing aid market growth, and better cost control including in procurement and on wages.