Our target price on AMPL shares is $14, which implies a ~6x CY27E blended multiple based on a 65%/35% weighted average of FY27 revenue growth of ~13% and FY27 NG OPM of ~7%. The framework that informs our valuation is based on a regression analysis of trading multiples and growth + profitability of companies across the software universe. We adjust, when necessary, to account for qualitative factors such as competitive positioning and sustainability of growth.

We rate AMPL as High Risk given the relatively nascent product analytics market and potential GenAI disruption 


Upside risks to stock outperforming our target price include:
1. Acceleration in net expansion rates and net new customer adds 
2. Faster and larger competitive displacement of legacy vendors 
3. Uptake of adjacent products is faster than expected, thus higher cross-sell/up-sell opportunities and ASP growth. 

Downside risks to achieving our target price include:
1. Deceleration in net new customers added to the ecosystem.
2. Faster-than-expected decline in net expansion rates and higher churn rates
3. Uptake of adjacent products is slower than expected, thus lower cross-sell/up-sell opportunities and ASP growth. 

If the impact on the company from any of these factors proves to be greater than we anticipate, the stock will likely have difficulty achieving our target price. Likewise, if any of these factors proves to have less of an effect than we anticipate, the stock could outperform our target.