Our $60 target for AMRZ is based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation methodology. Our SOTP implies a 12.5x NTM EBITDA multiple for the company, reflecting a 13.0x multiple for AMRZ’s Building Materials business, which is below VMC & MLM given those companies’ pure-play Aggs portfolios and higher returns, and a 10.5x NTM EBITDA multiple for the company’s Building Envelope business, roughly in-line with Building Products peer average.

This stock screens High Risk based upon our quantitative model (partially due to its status as a new company), but assigning a High Risk rating is not supported by AMRZ’s strong operational track record as a part of Holcim and underlying asset quality. Thus, a High Risk rating has not been applied. Key risks to achieving or surpassing our target price include: 
New public company risk – AMRZ was spun out from its parent company and majority-owner in 2025. AMRZ’s short history as a publicly traded company adds some risk relative to other public peers. 
End market volatility – Residential is 23% of sales, and the housing market can be volatile. The private commercial market has shown mixed trends over the past several years; this represents 49% of sales. Public demand (28% of sales) tends to be more predictable, but can be impacted by funding/bureaucratic delays. 
Weather Delays – Unfavorable (cold/wet) weather conditions can have a meaningful impact on construction activity and related Aggregates demand, causing quarter-to-quarter as well as year-to-year fluctuations in reported results. 
Operational risk – The company is investing to improve operational performance and add production capacity; if these investments fail to meet expectations, AMRZ shares could be impacted. 
M&A risk – The company’s earnings profile could be adversely impacted if the company encounters delays, integration issues, or funding challenges when engaging in M&A or greenfield projects. 
Lastly, a number of quantitative factors could cause downward deviations from our target price, including the cyclicality/seasonality of earnings, stock price volatility, and debt ratings.