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Valuation & Risks ( AAF.L ) Disclosure / Price Chart(s) / Valuation & Risk
Fundamental Equity Research
We use DCF applied to consolidated free cash flows, and adjust the resulting EV for net debt, minority interests, associates and other relevant factors. We make no specific adjustments for the withholding taxes on dividends or management fees payable by operating companies; however, we adjust valuation for contingent liabilities and minority stakes (Nigeria and Tanzania being the most relevant). We use WACC of 15.9% and the current GBPUSD rate to arrive at a price target of £1.60.

We rate Airtel Africa High Risk due to the limited trading history and relatively high FX-based leverage.
We see the following risks to achieving our target price, both to the upside and downside: 
• Changes in economic and demographic trends.
• Persisting barriers preventing an expansion of the addressable market. 
• Managing an 'asset-light' multi-country business in Africa.
• Faster/slower-than-expected voice-to-data transition.
• Stronger/weaker-than-expected ability to navigate competitive risks.
If the impact on the company from any of these factors proves to be less/more negative than we anticipate, the stock could materially outperform/underperform our target price.

 

 

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