We use a SOTP valuation on CY26e estimates to derive a £17.70 target price for ABF; which applies 12x P/E for Grocery, 9x P/E for Retail and Agriculture, and 11x P/E for Sugar, and 10x for Ingredients based on respective peer multiples.

We see the following key risks to the achievement of our target price on ABF: cyclical consumer demand, supply chain disruption, lack of online offering, fluctuating commodity prices, legislative changes, IT systems security/failure, reputational risk, and significant influence of family shareholding. If the impact on the company from any of these factors differs from our base case expectations, the stock could have difficulty achieving our target price or could increase more than we expect.