We arrive at our target price of Rs640/sh for Ambuja using 20x Mar’27 EV/EBITDA. Our target multiple is at a premium to its 5-year trading range of 15x (consensus) given Ambuja’s accelerated pace of capacity additions and potential cost upsides. We note Ambuja’s 50% holding in ACC at our target price of Rs2,550 for ACC. Our Ambuja target price of Rs640 implies an EV/t of $185.

Based on our sensitivity analysis, every 1% change in price would affect standalone EBITDA by ~5.2% and a 1% change in volume by ~1.2%. Downside risks that could cause the shares to trade below our target price include lower cement prices, weaker demand, and higher costs vs. expectations. Upside risks include higher cement prices, stronger-than-expected demand, and lower costs vs. expectations.