We arrive at our target price of Rs570/sh for Ambuja using 20x Sep’26 EV/EBITDA multiple. Our target multiple is at a premium to its 5-yr trading range of 15x (consensus) given Ambuja’s accelerated pace of capacity additions and potential cost upsides. Ambuja’s 50% holding in ACC at our TP of Rs2,500 for ACC. Our Ambuja TP of Rs570 (vs Rs540 earlier) implies an EV/t of $175.

Based on our sensitivity analysis, every 1% change in price would affect standalone EBITDA by ~4.3% and a 1% change in volume by ~1.3%. Downside risks that could cause the shares to trade below our target price include lower cement prices, weaker demand, higher costs vs. expectations. Upside risks include higher cement prices, stronger than expected demand and lower costs vs. expectations.