Our €34 PT is driven by a 11.5x FY26e P/E multiple consistent with the 3yr ave of c.11.5x 1yr fwd P/E. Ahold Delhaize has consistently delivered compounding and consistent total shareholder returns, and trades at a c.4% dividend yield.

The company-specific and industry risks faced by Ahold include: (1) a significant change to the competitive landscape or consumer behavior either positively or negatively; (2) with strong FCF generation, there is a risk Ahold could engage in value destructive M&A; (3) the risk the company fails to deliver on targets set out at its 2024 CMD; and (4) with over half of its profits derived from the US, dollar appreciation/(depreciation) is a significant upside/(downside) risk. These risks could cause the share price to deviate significantly from our target price.