We use a sum-of-the-parts method to value ADM shares, which applies EV/EBITDA to each of the company’s estimated segment earnings for CY26E. We use a 7.5x multiple for Ag Services and Oilseeds, 6.0x for Carbohydrate Solutions, 9.0x for Nutrition, and 6.0x for Other. This works out to a weighted average EV/EBITDA multiple of 7.3x and a target price of $51 per share.

ADM’s upside risks to our target price include: 1) Crush margins could be stronger than the futures curve suggests; and 2) The Nutrition business could rebound faster than expected. The accounting issues and restatements might not result in significant earnings revisions overall.
 
ADM’s downside risks to our target price include: 1) Crush margins could erode further; and 2) Ag Services margins could be worse than expected. 3) The ongoing accounting review and subsquent restatements could result in significant revisions – and take a long time to complete.