Our base-case DCF to 2030 generates a TP of 6.15 AED driven by a WACC of 8.7%, terminal growth of 1.9% p.a. and rig expansion to 168 (vs 142 today).

Our investment thesis and TP are subject to the following downside risks: 1) ADNOC dependency brings potential vulnerability, 2) technological challenges in delivering sour gas and unconventional growth and 3) long-term risks to oil & gas demand.