Our target price for AIS of Bt336 is based on a sum-of-the-parts of its consolidated business NPV-derived fair value (Bt332) with the market value of its 19% stake in JASIF (Bt4). For our NPV calculations we use 6.7% WACC and 1% terminal growth rate. Our WACC is derived using a risk-free rate of 2.75% and 0.94 beta. At our target price, AIS would trade at 25x FY25E PE and 10x EV/EBITDA.

Key downside risks that could cause the shares to trade below our target price include: 1) worsening in competitive intensity; 2) unforeseen penalties and case rulings leading to dividend cuts; and 3) spectrum acquisition at expensive valuations in future auctions.