Our 12m TP of EUR220 is based on a SOTP approach, using a combination of DCF (a WACC of 6.4% and flat terminal growth), RAB (currently at cEUR10bn) and multiples (implied EV/EBITDA of c10x on FY25e). We apply a premium to Aena RAB considering it is a leading airport in the region (handled more than 300m passengers in Spain network of airports) and higher margin than most of the peers.

The following risks could cause Aena's share price to underperform or outperform our target price: (1) A slower-than-expected / higher-than-expected traffic growth; (2) Weakness/Improvement in GDP; (3) Inflationary/Deflationary pressure on operating costs and (4) Permanent structure change in travel behavior (e.g. toursim tax leading to less holidays / longer duration holidays).