We value Affle at 48x FY26E P/E to arrive at our TP of Rs1,920/sh – our multiple is at a ~40% premium to the average PE of global ad-tech peers, given Affle's higher growth expectations vs global adtech average. The premium multiple is justified given Affle’s exposure to growth market/sub-segments and higher than average expected growth.

Risks that could mean Affle fails to reach our target price include: 
1) Affle pays for mobile ad inventory regardless of a user taking a revenue generating action. If the company’s platforms fail to predict engagement, this could lead to lower profitability and cashflows.  2) The global ad-tech market is dominated by digital giants. These companies are able to invest more in R&D, sales and can respond faster to technological changes. This can lead to customers moving to competitors or demanding lower prices, causing revenue loss for Affle. 3) Over the last few years, the digital ads industry has seen disruptions from Cookies depreciation (2024), Apple’s IDFA sharing limitations and policies such as Europe’s GDPR, India’s DPDP etc. which handle how user data is collected, stored and processed. This affects the cost structures (cost of acquiring and storing data) and revenues (lower conversions) and could negatively impact Affle’s revenues.