We value Aixtron using a ~12x EV/EBITDA based on CY26E earnings, inline with its historic trading average, which leads to our target price of EUR17. Nevertheless, this multiple is a slight discount to other strong growth stocks in our coverage, given Aixtron has been more volatile in their communication, execution, visibility, etc.

We highlight the following key downside risks for Aixtron. If the impact of these risk factors is more or less negative than we anticipate, then the share price could deviate significantly from our target price:
• Near-term shipment visibility – the slow issuance of export licenses by the German government could be a persitent problem, despite Aixtron’s assurances that the problem has been solved and that it is a matter of when rather than if the licenses are issued. 
• Competitive dynamics – Aixtron needs to gain share in SiC, however Tokyo Electron, LPE (ASM International) remain relevant and competitive
• Cost control / leverage – Aixtron is increasing spending, R&D and capex, in order to support tool development for future growth. Historical investment has paid off in terms of rising market share in a growing market and healthy operating leverage, but higher opex spending today could create risk in the event of a downturn in revenue.
• MicroLED development timing – we see limited estimate risk, but acknowledge potential for share price pressure on news of delays.