Ajax’s mkt share is ~75%, rest: Schwing Stetter, Conmat, Fiori, Venus, Aquarius. These are not listed, hence there are no direct comps. We use ACE/BEML’s PE multiples (30x/26.5x) as benchmarks. We expect 14% revenue CAGR for Ajax (FY24-27) vs. 16%/14% for ACE/BEML (consensus). Value Ajax in line with BEML (similar growth) – 26.5x Sep26 PE (ex other income) + cash.

Generally, recently listed companies are assigned a "High Risk" rating by our Quant risk model owing to their limited trading history. In that context, Ajax is rated High Risk as per our Quant risk model. However, Ajax has a healthy balance sheet and cash flow generation and hence we do not apply a High Risk rating. 


Downside risks: Increase in competitive intensity, difficulty in taking price hikes, slowing demand. Upside risks: Stronger-than-expected demand and volumes, industry consolidation, better prices on improved demand.