Our 12-month target price of SFr101 assumes Alcon trades at c.26x P/E on our 2028E core EPS estimate that is discounted back to mid-2026; this effectively assumes Alcon trades moderately above EU MedTech on normalized margins (ie, c.25% core EBIT margin) given superior sales and earning CAGRs.

We identify the following risks to our view and the achievement of our target price: greater-than-expected headwinds to volume and product mix as a result of the recessionary environment, intensifying competitive pressures, inability to execute on cost control and gross margin improvement, and US$ strength.