Our 12-month target price of P$23.5/sh is based on a sum-of-the-parts valuation, Our SOTP-based TP is grounded in conservative peer-derived multiples applying 7.0x to Mexico, 10.5x to the US, and 5.0x to LatAm and Europe—reflecting the margin profile and strategic importance of each region. Our TP implies an EV/EBITDA multiple of 7.5x 2026e.

Key risks to our target price include:

- Currency and commodity volatility pose earnings risk, but Sigma’s geographic & category diversification offers a natural hedge. 

- Potential prolonged or more severe than expected economic slowdown, especially in Mexico and the US.

- The most pressing challenges are the investor awareness and liquidity. Still limited consumer analyst coverage and the absence of a formal rebranding mean Sigma continues to trade in the shadow of its former holding company.