Our primary valuation approach is a DCF, where we use a cost of equity of c11% and long-term growth of 4.0%. From this we derive our target price of €8.60. We then sense-check this via a comparison of P/E multiples to listed peers.

We identify the following risks to the achievement of our target price: (1) Expansion into new regions and a decline in rebate AUA may put pressure on fee margins. (2) Concentration risk, as fund sales via key distributors account for 20-25% of revenues. (3) A potential EU ban on inducements may reduce platform margins, although this is offset by a higher growth opportunity, in our view. (4) Key-person risk. (5) M&A deal risk.