Our TP of A$5.70 is based on a sum-of-the parts DCF valuation. For our discounted cash flow valuation, we forecast cash flows until the end of each concession and discount them at WACC adjusted annually to give a group valuation net of corporate debt and capitalised overheads of A$5.70. For the discount rates, we use 3% risk-free rate for France/Germany and 4% for the US, and 5-6% risk premium for both US and European toll roads, respectively, and asset betas of 0.5-0.65, resulting in WACC of 6.6-8.9%.

Key near-term risks include:
- Additional income tax in France on APRR, following the tax implemented in 2025;
- Unfavourable FX movements given foreign currency earnings, negatively impacting A$ distributions;
- Higher bond yields and interest rates negatively impact both cash flows and valuations of long dated infrastructure assets.

Medium-term risks include:
-  Inability to replace APRR concession (Nov-2035 expiry);
- Additional taxes in France over and above what is being discussed currently;
- Ongoing traffic weakness on toll roads.

Positive or adverse developments in these risk factors could cause the share price to remain above or fall below our target price.