We value AP using a P/E multiple, based on our view that property stocks in Thailand track earnings momentum rather than asset value. We apply a fair-value P/E of 6.2x to 2025E EPS, which gives us a target price of Bt10.2 Our target P/E is derived using an average return on equity of 11%, cost of equity of 13.5% and EPS growth during 2024-2026E with CAGR 4.3% p.a.

The key downside risks to our AP target price include: 1) higher cancellation leads to lower-than-expected transfer; 2) worse-than-expected gross margin from inventory depletion of some projects; 3) labor shortage; 4) weaker market sentiment and momentum of low-rise demand or weaker-than-expected CD take-up rate; 5) delay of new launches; and 6) high SG&A to support high launches/marketing activities. 

The key upside risks to our AP target price include: 1) higher-than-expected condo inventory sale; 2) higher presales from SDH/TH segment, which can contribute revenue within 12 months; 3) better-than-expected housing gross margin; 4) improving in economy and macro outlook; and 5) LTV relaxation