Our $15 targe price reflects a ~3.0x multiple applied to our 2025E DACF estimate in a normalized commodity price environment ($65 WTI and $3.50 HH), which is modestly lower than APA's historical average, given oil price risk. We then add $4/sh to reflect the NPV of APA's share of the Suriname offshore development project.

Exploration Results – Successful exploration-appraisal results could lead to the stock outperforming expectations and our target price. Unsuccessful results could lead to the stock underperforming expectations.

Volatile Commodity Prices – APA is sensitive to changes in the prices of crude oil and natural gas. Hence, a material decline in commodity prices could cause APA's stock to decline.

Political Risks – APA operates in Egypt and, thus, is subject to political risk including changes in operating terms and fiscal regime.

If the impact on the company from any of these factors proves to be materially negative, then the stock will likely have difficulty achieving our target price.