Our $170 price target assigns: 1) FRE value of $105 based on a FRE multiple of 31x 2026E FRE of $3.38; 2) SRE value of $60 based on a SRE multiple of 9.5x; and 3) unrealized carry per share value of $6 based on a multiple of 3x net accrued carry. Our target multiples are based on company historical averages. 

Factors that could cause the company to exceed our price target include stronger-than-expected fund performance that could drive better organic growth and healthier levels of fundraising.

Factors that could cause the company to fail to achieve our price target include negative markets that could impact the valuation of APO’s portfolio companies, failure to generate adequate returns which could cause investors to withdraw assets or choose to invest in competing firms, difficulty fundraising, and lack of positive IRRs which would limit APO’s ability to generate carried interest.