Our target price for Arcelik is TL170 and is based on target multiple valuation: we apply a 5x EV/EBITDA multiple (in line with 5y average) to our 2025E estimates.  

We believe a High Risk rating is appropriate considering an increased share price volatility and uncertainty regarding European margins recovery path. 
Downside risks to our target price and investment thesis include: (1) Deterioration of consumer sentiment, leading to a drop in volumes that can result in lower capacity utilization, (2) Raw cost materials price increases, (3) Overhang risks related to acquired shares, (4) challenging M&A integration. 
Upside risks to our target price and investment thesis include: (1) Further Turkish Lira weakness, (2) Stronger pricing that can offset cost pressure, leading to higher margins, (3) value accretive M&As, (4) Significant buyback activity, (5) Cancellation of acquired shares.