Our price target for ARGX is $845 per share, derived by performing a discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis where we project probability-adjusted free cash flows (FCF) explicitly through 2030. We utilize a 0% terminal growth rate to account for anticipated pipeline expansion in future years. We then discount cash flows by 8.5% annually. Within our coverage, we utilize an 8-10% discount rate for companies that are commercial staged, with 8.5% reflecting a higher confidence in continued revenue growth vs. 10%.

argenx has many of the risks frequently associated with biotech companies. Share performance is closely linked to clinical, regulatory, and commercial updates, and therefore any updates that fall short of expectations could impact the ability of shares to reach our target price. 

In particular, we note that ARGX shares are likely trade on quarterly revenue updates and clinical readouts, with upside / downside risks to shares dependent on beating / missing Street expectations of Vyvgart quarterly revenue and positive / negative clinical data readouts.