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Valuation & Risks ( ARIS ) Disclosure / Price Chart(s) / Valuation & Risk
Fundamental Equity Research
Our $28 target price is derived through a 20-year NPV valuation and implies a 7.2x EV/EBITDA multiple on our 2026 estimates. Our NPV model assumes a 14% discount rate and 12% cap rate.

Downside risks to our target price include: (1) slower producer activity in the Permian; (2) increasing seismic activity regulation; (3) federal land exposure; and (4) low trading liquidity. Upside risks to our target price include: (1) higher volumes due to enhanced commercialization; (2) accretively cutting royalty costs and increasing margins; (3) significant advances in mineral extraction or beneficial reuse.

 

 

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