Our DCF-based TP of $30 is driven by strong growth over the next 5 years, a 12% discount rate, and 11x terminal multiple on year-five EBITDA.

This stock is High Risk based upon our quantitative model, but it is not supported by qualitative factors such as AS’ proven growth, margin expansion opportunities, and strong free cash flow, so we have not applied a High Risk rating.

Key downside risks that could cause AS shares to trade below our price target include: (1) Risks of a consumer slowdown; (2) The Arc'teryx brand could fall out of favor with the consumer; (3) Significant China exposure; (4) Moving more to DTC comes with more inventory risk; (5) Risks to the multi-branded strategy if one brand underperfoms expectations.