We value Astra International at Rp6,100 using a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) methodology since the company has different businesses, but automotive-related businesses remain the biggest contributor to the total value. We value the auto-related divisions at a 2025E PER of 8x (based on lower range of historical market valuations in the past eight years), and listed companies United Tractors, Astra Otoparts and Astra Agro Lestari at market price, respectively. Our TP implies a 2025E PER of 7.5x.

Downside risks that could pressure the share price below our target price are: 1) Weaker than expected 4W volume due to competition and faster switch into EV vehicles ; 2) Significant drop in commodity prices; 3) Worsening asset quality in its financial services businesses.