We see key risks to the achievement of our ASUR target price as follows: (1) irrational capacity decisions by host airlines; (2) macro risks, especially those that can impact aviation; and (3) regulatory risks, including future officials reducing allowable returns on RAB.
Upside risks include: (1) traffic growth and margins for San Juan and Colombia could improve more rapidly than we expect; and (2) positive macro factors (favorable FX, lower jet fuel prices, etc).
If the impact from the above turns out to be greater/less than we expect, the shares could fail to achieve/exceed our target price.
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