Our $70 price target is based on 7x our FY26 EBITDA estimate. Our target EV/EBITDA multiple we think is justified given moderate forward-looking non-res construction indicators and normalizing pricing balanced by improving execution and capital deployment optionality. Our TP reflects the market multiples trend.

This stock is High Risk based on our quantitative model and we believe a High Risk classification is appropriate for ATKR given its recent stock price volatility and concerns over residential and non-residential end markets maturing.
Given ATKR’s exposure to US construction, we think still-resilient project activity across non-resi end market (supported by investments across Data Centers) could support solid demand trends across the company. However, higher interest rates could drag the US economy into an elongated slowdown, and construction spending could likely see even a sharp/long-lasting decline, which could materially impact ATKR’s earnings and would be a risk to the stock achieving our target price. Positive or adverse developments in these risk factors could cause the share price to remain above or fall below our target price.