Our Bt1.61 target price is based on DCF valuation and implies 19x 2025E EV/EBITDA. Our average WACC of 7.0% is based on 2.5% Rf, 1.2x Beta, 3% Kd, 8% Rp, 3% terminal growth, and 0.6x debt-to-capital ratio. We forecast a 9% 2024-31E CAGR in the number of hotel rooms and a 1% CAGR in 2024E-31E RevPar.

Key upside risks that could cause AWC shares to trade above our target price include: (1) faster-than-expected new hotel ramp-up; (2) a stronger RevPar outlook on overshooting tourist arrivals and less price competition; (3) faster than expected occupancy ramp-up for wholesale commercial property; and (4) better-than-expected asset yield generation.