We value BATRK at $48 per share. To arrive at our target price, we incorporate our base case Atlanta Braves team sale scenario ($39 per share) and mixed-use valuation ($9 per share). Our base case Braves team sale scenario assumes a new CBA is agreed upon in the first half of 2027 and a sale of the Atlanta Braves occurs in the second half of 2027 at ~6.0x EV-revenue.

Upside Risks: 1) If a new CBA agreement occurs faster than we anticipate and is more team-friendly than expected, there may be upside to our target price. 2) If a team sale occurs earlier than we anticipate, there may be upside to our target price. 3) To the extent the firm completes incremental accretive M&A at attractive valuations, there may be upside to both our estimates and target price.  

Downside Risks: 1) If CBA negotiations are more contentions than we anticipate, this could lead to a prolonged player strike or owner lockout. If a prolonged strike or lockout results in canceled games, this could result in downside to both our estimates and target price. 2) If a less team-friendly CBA agreement is put into place, this could result in downside to our target price. 3) If it takes longer for a team sale to occur than we anticipate, this could result in downside to our target price.