Key downside risks that could impede the stock from reaching our target price include: (1) Potentially enhanced negative sentiment on rail merger that could weigh on GATX shares. (2) Further escalation of the trade tensions could drive shipper uncertainty and hesitancy, reducing railcar leasing activity. (3) If the Brookfield JV is not completed, the elimination of deal optionality value could weigh on GATX shares. (4) Overbuilding by railcar lessors, or financial investors entering the market, could drive a loose market. (5) Renewal lease rates have been strong ’22 to-date as rates catch up following the ’16-’21 weak lease market driven by the shale bust and Covid; GATX expects elevated renewal lease rates to continue through mid-’27 but a shortening of that timeframe could weigh on rates. (6) A weakening secondary market could weigh on remarketing income.