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Valuation & Risks ( DD ) Disclosure / Price Chart(s) / Valuation & Risk
Fundamental Equity Research
We value DD using a SOTP framework on the new construct of the separated businesses: We apply ~12x EV/EBITDA to New DuPont PF 2026E EBITDA of ~$1,688 mm after adjusting for dissynergies, corporate costs and stranded costs beyond our segment numbers.The target multiple for New DuPont is at a modest discount to multi-industrial peers to reflect the slower-growing Diversified Industrials side of the business partially offset by the high quality Water & Healthcare business. We apply ~17x to Qnity (SpinCo) PF 2026E EBITDA of $1,527 mm, reflecting the ~$96 mm in estimated additional costs beyond our segment financials. The target multiple for Qnity (Electronics Spin) is a modest discount to the highest-quality pure-play US competitor to reflect similar margin profile and better consumables exposure, partially offset by lack of history as a public company. On these target multiples applied to our FY26 estimates, PF net debt of ~$4.3bn reflecting proceeds from Aramids, and an estimated present value of future PFAS liabilities (~$2.5bn), we derive a target price of $93.

We see the following as risks to achieving our target price:

Economic Conditions – DD’s sizable exposure to industrial markets such as housing, among others, has a direct influence on company profitability. Deterioration in economic growth or industrial demand would negatively impact DD’s results.

Environmental Liabilities – Like most chemical companies, DD incurs environmental operating costs and also faces product liability risks related to its current and prior businesses, particularly PFAS. Indemnification by Chemours for some of its accrued liabilities mitigates this risk, but there is no certainty that Chemours will uphold or be financially capable of indemnification.

Currency Fluctuations – DD operates in many international markets and is therefore exposed to fluctuations in foreign currencies relative to the USD. If the USD strengthens/weakens, it would be negative/positive.

Public Sector Spending – Several of DD’s businesses such as Kevlar are also influenced by public sector spending, including but not limited to military and defense. If spending declines, it would be negative for DD.

Ability to Maintain Product Differentiation – The ability to introduce new products is an important aspect of long-term sales growth. Furthermore, DD’s ability to innovate to stay ahead of its competition in the markets it serves is a critical component. Successful commercialization of new products, along with strong market adoption, would be positive for the company and to its ability to exceed our target price.

Positive or adverse developments in these risk factors could cause the share price to move above or fall below our target price.

 

 

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