Our DCF-based target price of $60 is driven by strong growth over the next 5 years, an 11% discount rate and a 15x terminal multiple on year five EBITDA.

Downside risks to our TP include Nike making a comeback in major markets, hurting On's market share opportunity, economic slowdown in key markets, potential supply chain disruptions, including much higher tariffs than currently proposed, and a potential increase in promotions, which would lead to margin degradation.