Our US$75.50 target price for Las Vegas Sands shares is derived by assigning equal weights to the equity values derived from our sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) valuation methodology and DCF-based valuation methodology.

Our SOTP valuation yields a US$74.38/share equity value. We value Marina Bay Sands at 10x 2026E EV/EBITDA (consistent with the multiple we apply to other ASEAN gaming stocks under our coverage) plus our estimated value enhancement from the new phase. We value the group's stake in Sands China at our target price and account for the royalty income stream from the subsidiary. We then subtract from the total asset value net debt of the group (excluding net debt at the Sands China level).

Our DCF-based valuation produces an equity value at US$76.48/share. Our assumed WACC of ~9% is derived from a cost-of-equity of 11% and an after-tax cost of debt of 4.9%; we use a ~14x multiple to estimate the terminal value.

Key downside risks that could prevent the shares from reaching our target price include: 1) China or Macau government regulatory changes that could negatively alter the current operating/financial structure, visitation, or tax in Macau; 2) the impact of any macroeconomic downturn on tourism and visitation, whether caused by trade conflicts, epidemics, or other factors; and 3) significant increase in overall competitive intensity.