We value Maersk using a 50/50 blend of price/book and EV/EBITDA. For EV/EBITDA, we apply the bottom decile multiple seen across 2010–19, while we apply the bottom decile figure for P/B. This is factoring in the market's likely scepticism toward the sector in the context of both a challenging supply outlook and demand concerns arising from ongoing geopolitical issues. We apply the EV/EBITDA to a 50/50 blend of 2025E and 2026E EBITDA. This reflects the fact that our 2026E EBITDA is meaningfully lower than our (meaningfully increased) 2025E EBITDA. Our target price is DKK14,021.

Certain industry- and company-specific risks could prevent Maersk from achieving our target price. Container shipping profits have historically been volatile, reflecting: the volume and pattern of trade; freight rates that are acutely sensitive to supply imbalances and to market share-driven strategies of competitors; and the volatility in bunker costs. Also in the port segment, risks include weaker pricing; non-renewal of material concessions and/or failure to win further concessions; capex overspend; and delays in scheduled expansion projects.


Upside risks to our target price being exceeded include: 1) an improvement in consumer confidence, i.e. higher-than-expected consumer demand, better supply and demand dynamics through short-term capacity management, resulting in a favorable freight rate environment; 2) Maersk continuing to win market share through integrated logistics offering, resulting in lower-than-expected earnings volatility; 3) congestion, Red Sea closure, and tight supply chain conditions remaining throughout the rest of 2025 and 2026; and 4) in the port segment, risks include better pricing and better synergies within the ocean segment.