A deeper and/or more prolonged recession relative to our current expectations could weigh on the RevPAR growth assumptions, which would likely reduce estimates and could lead to downside relative to our price target. Other risks include lower net unit growth in 2025/2026 versus our outlook, which could stem from delayed construction starts, fewer conversions, and/or higher systemwide deletions. Upside risks include improving economic outlook relative to expectations, as well as higher capital return through share buybacks and/or dividends and better net unit growth versus our current outlook.
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