Our TP is EUR 3.30/share, based on an average of our DCF and 2026E EV/EBITA (at 2024E PV) and reflects a high likelihood of the JBT EUR 3.60/share offer being successful. Our multiples approach assumes 6% organic growth and a 12% through-the-cycle margin. Our WACC for Marel at 8.4% is based on an equity beta of 1.25x, a 20% tax rate, and a risk-free rate and equity risk premium of 4.2% and 4.5%, respectively.
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1) Risk of food scandals (short-term negative, long-term positive); 2) competition for attractive M&A; 3) alternative meats; and 4) execution risk. These risks could prevent the shares from achieving our target price. If the impact on the company from any of these factors differs from our base case expectations, the stock could have difficulty achieving our target price or could increase more than we expect.
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