Our $14 target price is based on an average of four valuation methodologies. We apply an EBITDA multiple of 9x to our EBITDA forecast for 2026 in our first methodology. Our DCF valuation uses a WACC of ~8% and a 2% terminal growth rate. In our NAV per share value, we value the companies' vessels separately based on recent market transactions and our assumed value based on day rates. In our PE-based approach, we apply a 6.0x multiple to our forecast earnings for 2026.
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We rate NETI High Risk due to its volatility and as it comes up as High Risk on our Quant Risk screen. Key risks to achieving our target price are: 1) market: wind turbine installation demand could prove less than anticipated, which would have negative implications for NETI's results; 2) competitive: if growing WTIV supply from newbuilds or upgrades outpaces demand, pricing and utilization could suffer, hurting NETI's results; 3) regulatory: government policies could become less supportive, which could hurt NETI's growth; 4) execution: a negative outcome on NETI's move into the WTIV space could negatively impact results; 5) capital markets: if the cost of capital rises significantly, it would negatively impact NETI's access to capital; 6) M&A: if the proposed merger transaction falls through, NETI shares could pull back. Conversely, if the aforementioned risks work in NETI’s favor, the stock could exceed our target price.
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