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Valuation & Risks ( PPL ) Disclosure / Price Chart(s) / Valuation & Risk
Fundamental Equity Research
We value PPL shares at $36. Citi values the PA utility at $17/share based on a DCF valuation with a 20.0x terminal PE multiple. We value KY utilities at $17/share based on a DCF valuation and a 20.0x terminal PE. We value Rhode Island Utility based on a weighted average of 4 valuations resulting in a $6/share. The rounded sum-of-the-parts gets us to our $36 PT after accounting for $5 of drag from parent debt.

The operation of PPL's transmission and distribution operations, as well as generation plants, are all reliant on cyber-based technologies and, therefore, subject to the risk that such systems could be the target of disruptive actions, principally by terrorists or criminals, or otherwise be compromised by unintentional events.

Increases in electricity prices and/or a weak economy can lead to changes in legislative and regulatory policy, including the promotion of energy efficiency, conservation, and distributed generation or self-generation, which may adversely impact PPL's business. 

Fundamentally, PPL's profitability is highly dependent on their ability to recover the costs of providing energy and utility services to our customers and earn an adequate return on our capital investments. Regulators may not approve the rates they request and existing rates may be challenged.

If the impact from any of these factors proves to be greater than we anticipate, the stock could have difficulty achieving our target price. Alternatively if the effect is less than expected, the share price could exceed our target.

 

 

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