Our target price of A$25.50/share (rounded) is based on our life-of-assets DCF valuation and attributes 100% risk weighting for Scarborough/Pluto LNG T2 project (first cargo expected 4Q26). We have a 90% each for Louisiana LNG Phase 1, 80% for Phase 2, a 90% risk weight for Beaumont Phase 1, and a 100% risk weighting for Trion. We have a 25% risk weighting for Calypso, and a 10% risk weighting for Sunrise and Browse. 
Our target price is based on our group risked DCF SOTP. We apply a 10% discount to our risked DCF to reflect the macroeconomic uncertainties around trade volatility. Our base case, long-term Brent oil price is US$60/bbl (real to 1Q25).

We consider the following risks to our base case investment case and achieving our target price:

- While Citi maintains a moderately conservative base case oil price outlook (US$60/bbl long-term Brent, real) relative to our peers, we flag upside risk with increasing geopolitical uncertainty and a tightening supply market and downside risk of a European-led global recession that may drive down oil and gas demand. With European inventory levels expected to reach capacity by the end of the European summer, and power demand failing to pick up this demand, JKM prices could bottom at Henry Hub + Shipping. There is a downside risk Henry Hub could be depressed further.

- WDS has successfully de-risked interests in the approved Scarborough LNG with the sell-down of a 49% non-operating interest in the project. Cost pressures, project delays and continued negative public scrutiny around the carbon emissions of the project are still identified as notable risks worth highlighting.

- Growing geopolitical instability amid rising inflation and interest rates with many growth assets located in high-risk countries, including Trinidad & Tobago, Senegal, and Mexico.

If the impact on the company from any of these factors proves to be greater than we anticipate, the stock will be at risk of missing our target price. Likewise, if any of these factors proves to have less of an effect than we anticipate, the stock could materially outperform our target.